The Spanish Economy
Banco de España: Spanish economic projections report (March 26, 2015)
This report updates the economic projections released in December. According to Banco de España, the performance of the Spanish economy will continue to improve, with estimated GDP growth of 2.8% and 2.7% in 2015 and 2016, respectively. Expected GDP growth in 2015 entails a 0.8 pp upward revision of the projection published last December
Inflation-Linked auction (Bono del Estado Nov 2030) (March 24, 2015 - pdf 379 KB)
This represents the Kingdom’s third syndicated transaction of 2015 following the launch of new nominal 10-year and 15-year Obligaciones earlier in the year. Due 30 November 2030, the EUR 3.5 billion 15-year benchmark issue carries a 1% annual coupon and was priced at a spread of 138bps through the 1.95% SPGB due July 2030 to give a real yield of 0.354% and a re-offer price of 109.827%
European Commission: Statement by the EC and the ECB following the third post-programme surveillance visit to Spain (March 23, 2015)
Overall, Spain is benefiting from past structural reforms, fiscal consolidation and bank recapitalisation, which are increasingly reflected in financial sector stabilisation, a strong economic recovery and low sovereign risk premia. Nonetheless, significant imbalances remain. Full and effective implementation of the reform agenda and its further strengthening are paramount to sustain the recovery, further rebalance the economy and maintain low risk premia going forward.
Spanish Economy Report (February 2015) (March 20, 2015)
The Spanish Economy: recent developments and prospects,
- Weekly Economic Bulletin (March 20, 2015)
International Trade Report - January 2015 (March 20, 2015 - pdf 647 KB)
In January 2015 nominal exports dropped by 2.9% y/y to €17.9bn and nominal imports diminished by 3.6% y/y to €20.5bn. Real exports fell by 3.0% and real imports declined by 0.8%. Spain’s trade balance registered a deficit of €2.6bn; vs €2.8bn in Jan 2014. The export/import coverage ratio reached 87.3% (vs 86.7% in Jan 2014).
Quarterly Labour Cost Survey (QLCS). Q4-2014 (March 17, 2015)
The labour cost of companies decreases 0.5% in the fourth quarter of 2014 vs the same period of 2013. The wage cost per worker per month decreases 0.2% vs the same period of the previous year and other costs decreases 1.5%.
Short term auction (Letras): 17 March 2015 (March 17, 2015 - pdf 84 KB)
3-month Letras: €411m allotted, 4.69 bid-to-cover, 0.004% weighted average rate. 9-month Letras: €2.10bn allotted, 3.02 bid-to-cover, 0.048% weighted average rate.
Consumer Price Index (CPI). February 2015 (March 12, 2015)
The y/y change of the January CPI index stands at -1.1% (-1.3% in January). Core CPI Remains at 0.2% y/y. The harmonized consumer price index (HICP) stands at -1,3% (-1.5% in January) y/y.
Long term auction: 12 March 2015 (March 12, 2015 - pdf 92 KB)
Jan-2020: €910m allotted, 3.19 bid to cover, 0.386% weighted average rate. Jan-2022: €975m allotted, 2.53 bid to cover, 0.637% weighted average rate. Apr-2025: €2.6bn allotted, 1.68 bid to cover, 1.023% weighted average rate. YTD gross issuance of medium- and long-term bonds stands at €45.7bn (32.2% of the projected figure for the year 2015).
Retail Trade Index (RTI). January 2015 (March 10, 2015)
The monthly change of the RTI stands at -0.4% (SA) vs 1.3% m/m the previous month. The y/y change of the index stands at 4.1% (SA) and at 4.2% (original series).
Industrial Production Index (IPI). January 2015 (March 06, 2015)
In January, the m/m change of the Industrial Production Index stood at 0.2% (SA). The y/y change of the IPI stood at 0.4% in SA terms and at -2.0% in the original series.
Markit Services PMI. February 2015 (March 04, 2015)
Spanish services activity continues to grow sharply: The headline SA Services PMI Index posted 56.2 in February from 56.7 in January. Activity has now risen in each of the past 16 months, with panellists largely attributing the latest expansion to improving economic conditions.
Labour Market: registered unemployment. February 2015 (March 03, 2015)
Registered unemployment decreased by 13,538 in the month of February (-0.30%, m/m), this is the greatest decrease in the month of February since 2001. In SA terms the unemployment decreased by 49,653. The y/y change in unemployment shows a decrease of 300,333 persons (-6.24%).
Markit Manufacturing PMI. February 2015 (March 02, 2015)
Sharpest rise in new orders since April 2007. The Output in the Spanish manufacturing sector continued to expand during February as new order growth accelerated. The SA PMI index posted 54.2 in February from 54.7 in January. The health of the sector has now strengthened in each of the past 15 months.