SPANISH ECONOMY OVERVIEW
Investors Presentation (February 10, 2017 - pdf 1.1 MB)
1. The Treasury Funding Programme; 2. Transformation of Spain’s growth model; 3. Spanish Economic Policy & Reforms.
Gobierno de España: Macroeconomic Scenario (December 02, 2016 - pdf 21 KB)
Spain macroeconomic scenario 2016-2017. GDP growth forecast: 3.2% for 2016 (2.9% in October) and 2.5% for 2017 (2.3% in October).
Spanish external sector and competitiveness: facts and figures (November 21, 2016 - pdf 560 KB)
In the year to september 2016, exports increased by 1.2% compared to the same period of 2015 to €188.5bn, whereas imports dropped by 1.6% y/y to €201.7bn. In real terms, exports rose by 3.2% y/y and imports grew by 2.7% y/y. Spain’s trade deficit decreased to €13.2bn compared to January-September of 2015 (deficit of €18.6bn). The export/import coverage ratio reached 93.4%, 2.5 pp higher than in the same period of 2015 (90.9%). The attached updated document provides additional key facts and figures of Spain's external sector.
Consumer Price Index (CPI). January 2017 (February 15, 2017)
The y/y change of the CPI index stands at 3.0%, one point and a half more than the registered the previous month. Core CPI increases one tenth to 1.1%. The harmonized consumer price index (HICP) increases one point and a half to 2.9%.
Industrial Production Index (IPI). December 2016 (February 08, 2017)
The m/m change of the Industrial Production Index stood at -0.5% (SA). The y/y change of the IPI stood at 1.9% in SA terms and at -1.6% in the original series. In the year 2016 as whole, Industrial Production increased by 1.9% in the adjusted series and 1.6% in the original series
Markit Services PMI. January 2017 (February 03, 2017)
The headline seasonally adjusted Business Activity Index posted at 54.2 in January, down from 55.0 in December but still signalling a solid monthly increase in activity. Services output has now risen in each of the past 39 months.
Labour Market: Social Security covered workers. January 2017 (February 02, 2017 - pdf 59 KB)
In the month of January, Social Security system contributors decreased by 174,880 persons (-0.98%, m/m). In seasonally adjusted terms, Social Security contributors increased by 67,460 persons. Versus a year earlier, the annual increase in recorded affiliation is 569,817 (3.33% y/y).
Labour Market: Registered unemployment. January 2017 (February 02, 2017 - pdf 65 KB)
In the month of January, registered unemployment increased by 57,257 persons (1.55%, m/m). In seasonally adjusted terms, registered unemployment decreased by 33,524 persons. Versus a year earlier, the annual fall in registered unemployment is 390,524 (-9.41% y/y).
Markit Manufacturing PMI. January 2017 (February 01, 2017)
The SA PMI index rose to 55.6 in January, up from 55.3 in December, signalling a further marked improvement in the health of the sector, and one that was the strongest since May 2015. Business conditions have now strengthened in each of the past 38 months.
GDP Q4-16 (flash estimate) (January 30, 2017)
GDP registers variation of 0.7% in the Q4-16. The y/y variation is 3.0%. As a result of the aggregation of the estimation corresponding to the four quarters, the GDP volume growth for the whole year 2016 is estimated at 3.2%.
Retail Trade Index (RTI). December 2016 (January 27, 2017)
The monthly change of the RTI stands at 0.1% (SA) vs 0.4% m/m the previous month. The y/y change of the index stands at 3.9% (SA) and at 0.9% (original series).
Labour market: Economically Active Population Survey (EAPS) Q4-16 (January 26, 2017)
In Q4-16, employment decreases by 19,400 persons. In the last 12 months, employment increases by 413,900 persons, the y/y change in employment was +2.29%. The number of unemployed persons decreases by 83,000 in Q4-16. In the last 12 months, unemployment decreases by 541,700 persons, the y/y change in unemployment was -11.33%.
Quarterly Labour Cost Survey (QLCS). Q3-2016 (December 16, 2016)
The labour cost of companies decreases 0.5% in the Q3-2016 vs the same period of 2015. The wage cost per worker per month decreases by 0.3% and other costs decreases 0.9%.
Quarterly National Accounts Q3-16 (November 24, 2016)
In Q3-16, the Spanish economy registered a quarterly growth of 0.7%. This rate is one tenth lower than that recorded in Q2-16. Year-on-year growth stands at 3.2% vs 3.4% registered in the previous quarter.
DATA CENTRE / BULLETINS
Spanish Economy Report (January 2017) (February 21, 2017 - pdf 438 KB)
The Spanish Economy: recent developments and prospects,
International Trade Report - December 2016 (February 20, 2017 - pdf 1.1 MB)
In December exports increased by 2.9% in nominal terms to €20.73bn (+6.5% y/y SA), whereas imports avanced by 5.6% to €23.18bn (+9.6% y/y SA). In real terms, exports increased by 2.5% y/y and imports grew by 2.8% y/y. Spain’s trade balance registered a deficit of €2.45bn, up from a €1.79bn deficit in December 2015 (provisional data).The export/import coverage ratio reached 89.4% (91.8% in December 2015 with provisional data).
- Weekly Economic Bulletin (February 17, 2017 - pdf 1.2 MB)
Banco de España - Statistical Bulletin. January 2017 (February 08, 2017)
It contains the economic statistics compiled by the BoE (on the credit system, other financial institutions, financial markets, general government and the balance of payments), a summary of general economic statistics, compiled by the INE and other public bodies, and a set of indicators for other countries.
European Commission: European economic forecast - Winter 2017 Spain (February 13, 2017 - pdf 246 KB)
Economic growth exceeded expectations in recent quarters. As favourable tailwinds gradually subside, the pace of growth is set to ease but remain robust throughout the forecast horizon. Unemployment is set to continue to fall steadily, and inflation is picking up as oil prices increase and core inflation recovers. Thanks to both new revenue measures and a positive macroeconomic outlook, the general government deficit is expected to continue declining over the forecast horizon. Public debt is set to stabilise at about 100% of GDP. Accordingly, Spain’s economy is forecast to grow by 2.3% (2.3% in November) in 2017 and 2.1% (2.1% in November) in 2018.
IMF: World Economic Outlook Update - January 2017 (January 16, 2017)
The IMF GDP growth forecast for Spain: 2.3% for 2017 (2.2% in October) and 2.1% for 2018 (1.9% in October).
Banco de España: Macroeconomic projections (December 2016) (December 14, 2016)
Throughout the projection period, the expansionary phase of the economy is expected to continue, underpinned – inter alia – by the maintenance of the monetary stimulus and by the headway made in the ongoing deleveraging of private agents and the pick-up in external competitiveness. Specifically, GPD growth is projected to stand at 3.2% this year (3.2% in September), 2.5% in 2017 (up from 2.3%), 2.1% in 2018 (2.1%) and 2.0% in 2019.
OECD: Economic Outlook November 2016 Spain (November 28, 2016)
The OECD improves its GDP growth forecast for Spain to 3.2% for 2016 (up from 2.8% in June). Forecats 2.3% for 2017 (2.3% in June) and 2.2% for 2018. The Spanish economy has grown strongly in 2016, led by domestic demand spurred by easy monetary policy in the euro area and a fiscal stimulus. The expansionary phase is expected to continue in 2017 and 2018, with domestic demand leading the recovery, albeit at a slower pace as some factors that have contributed to boost consumption, such as low oil prices and lower taxes, will recede. Inflation will gradually pick up as the effects of low oil prices diminish, but pressures will remain moderate due to still high unemployment.
(February 2017 - pdf 1.1 MB)
Stability Programme 2016-2019 (Summary presentation) ES
(April 2016 - pdf 234 KB)
National Reform Programme 2016 Executive Summary
(April 2016 - pdf 190 KB)