SPANISH ECONOMY OVERVIEW
Investors Presentation (March 21, 2017 - pdf 977 KB)
1. The Treasury Funding Programme; 2. Transformation of Spain’s growth model; 3. Spanish Economic Policy & Reforms.
Spanish external sector and competitiveness: facts and figures (March 02, 2017 - pdf 555 KB)
In 2016, exports increased by 1.7% compared to 2015 to €254.5bn, whereas imports dropped by 0.4% y/y to €273.3bn. In real terms, exports advanced by 3.5% y/y and imports grew by 2.8% y/y. Spain’s trade deficit decreased to €18.8bn compared to 2015 (deficit of €24.2bn). The export/import coverage ratio reached 93.1%, 1.9 pp higher than in 2015 (91.2%). The attached updated document provides additional key facts and figures of Spain's external sector.
Gobierno de España: Macroeconomic Scenario (December 02, 2016 - pdf 21 KB)
Spain macroeconomic scenario 2016-2017. GDP growth forecast: 3.2% for 2016 (2.9% in October) and 2.5% for 2017 (2.3% in October).
Quarterly Labour Cost Survey (QLCS). Q4-2016 (March 16, 2017)
The labour cost of companies decreases 0.8% in the Q4-2016 vs the same period of 2015. The wage cost per worker per month decreases by 0.8% and other costs decreases 0.9%.
Consumer Price Index (CPI). February 2017 (March 14, 2017)
The y/y change of the CPI index stands at 3.0%, the same figure than that registered the previous month. Core CPI decreases one tenth to 1.0%. The harmonized consumer price index (HICP) increases one tenth to 3.0%.
Retail Trade Index (RTI). January 2017 (March 10, 2017)
The monthly change of the RTI stands at -1.1% (SA) vs 0.1% m/m the previous month. The y/y change of the index stands at 0.1% (SA) and at -0.1% (original series).
Industrial Production Index (IPI). January 2017 (March 08, 2017)
The m/m change of the Industrial Production Index stood at 0.3% (SA). The y/y change of the IPI stood at 2.5% in SA terms and at 7.1% in the original series.
Markit Services PMI. February 2017 (March 03, 2017)
The headline seasonally adjusted Business Activity Index rose markedly to 57.7 in February from 54.2 in January, thereby signalling a much faster rate of growth in services activity than was seen at the start of the year. Moreover, the rate of expansion was the strongest since August 2015. Services output has now risen in each of the past 40 months.
Quarterly National Accounts Q4-16 (March 02, 2017)
In Q4-16, the Spanish economy registered a quarterly growth of 0.7%. This rate matches the one estimated for the third quarter of the year. Year-on-year growth stands at 3.0%, compared with 3.2% registered in the previous quarter. In the year 2016 as whole, GDP increases by 3.2%.
Labour Market: Social Security covered workers. February 2017 (March 02, 2017 - pdf 59 KB)
In the month of February, Social Security system contributors increased by 74,080 persons (0.42%, m/m). In seasonally adjusted terms, Social Security contributors increased by 46,079 persons. Versus a year earlier, the annual increase in recorded affiliation is 580,543 (3.38% y/y).
Labour Market: Registered unemployment. February 2017 (March 02, 2017 - pdf 65 KB)
In the month of February, registered unemployment decreased by 9,355 persons (-0.25%, m/m). In seasonally adjusted terms, registered unemployment decreased by 32,711 persons. Versus a year earlier, the annual fall in registered unemployment is 402,110 (-9.68% y/y).
Markit Manufacturing PMI. February 2017 (March 01, 2017)
The SA PMI index registered at 54.8 in February, down from 55.6 in January but still signalling a solid monthly improvement in the health of the manufacturing sector. Business conditions have now improved in each of the past 39 months.
GDP Q4-16 (flash estimate) (January 30, 2017)
GDP registers variation of 0.7% in the Q4-16. The y/y variation is 3.0%. As a result of the aggregation of the estimation corresponding to the four quarters, the GDP volume growth for the whole year 2016 is estimated at 3.2%.
Labour market: Economically Active Population Survey (EAPS) Q4-16 (January 26, 2017)
In Q4-16, employment decreases by 19,400 persons. In the last 12 months, employment increases by 413,900 persons, the y/y change in employment was +2.29%. The number of unemployed persons decreases by 83,000 in Q4-16. In the last 12 months, unemployment decreases by 541,700 persons, the y/y change in unemployment was -11.33%.
DATA CENTRE / BULLETINS
- Weekly Economic Bulletin (March 24, 2017 - pdf 1.2 MB)
Spanish Economy Report (February 2017) (March 23, 2017 - pdf 582 KB)
The Spanish Economy: recent developments and prospects,
International Trade Report - January 2017 (March 21, 2017 - pdf 872 KB)
In January exports increased by 17.4% in nominal terms to €21.44bn (+11.7% y/y SA), whereas imports avanced by 19.0% to €24.57bn (+12.5% y/y SA). In real terms, exports increased by 16.5% y/y and imports grew by 11.2% y/y. Spain’s trade balance registered a deficit of €3.13bn, up from a €2.39bn deficit in January 2016 (provisional data).The export/import coverage ratio reached 87.2% (88.4% in January 2016 with provisional data).
Banco de España - Statistical Bulletin. February 2017 (March 08, 2017)
It contains the economic statistics compiled by the BoE (on the credit system, other financial institutions, financial markets, general government and the balance of payments), a summary of general economic statistics, compiled by the INE and other public bodies, and a set of indicators for other countries.
European Commission: European economic forecast - Winter 2017 Spain (February 13, 2017 - pdf 246 KB)
Economic growth exceeded expectations in recent quarters. As favourable tailwinds gradually subside, the pace of growth is set to ease but remain robust throughout the forecast horizon. Unemployment is set to continue to fall steadily, and inflation is picking up as oil prices increase and core inflation recovers. Thanks to both new revenue measures and a positive macroeconomic outlook, the general government deficit is expected to continue declining over the forecast horizon. Public debt is set to stabilise at about 100% of GDP. Accordingly, Spain’s economy is forecast to grow by 2.3% (2.3% in November) in 2017 and 2.1% (2.1% in November) in 2018.
IMF: World Economic Outlook Update - January 2017 (January 16, 2017)
The IMF GDP growth forecast for Spain: 2.3% for 2017 (2.2% in October) and 2.1% for 2018 (1.9% in October).
Banco de España: Macroeconomic projections (December 2016) (December 14, 2016)
Throughout the projection period, the expansionary phase of the economy is expected to continue, underpinned – inter alia – by the maintenance of the monetary stimulus and by the headway made in the ongoing deleveraging of private agents and the pick-up in external competitiveness. Specifically, GPD growth is projected to stand at 3.2% this year (3.2% in September), 2.5% in 2017 (up from 2.3%), 2.1% in 2018 (2.1%) and 2.0% in 2019.
OECD: Economic Outlook November 2016 Spain (November 28, 2016)
The OECD improves its GDP growth forecast for Spain to 3.2% for 2016 (up from 2.8% in June). Forecats 2.3% for 2017 (2.3% in June) and 2.2% for 2018. The Spanish economy has grown strongly in 2016, led by domestic demand spurred by easy monetary policy in the euro area and a fiscal stimulus. The expansionary phase is expected to continue in 2017 and 2018, with domestic demand leading the recovery, albeit at a slower pace as some factors that have contributed to boost consumption, such as low oil prices and lower taxes, will recede. Inflation will gradually pick up as the effects of low oil prices diminish, but pressures will remain moderate due to still high unemployment.
(March 2017 - pdf 977 KB)
Stability Programme 2016-2019 (Summary presentation) ES
(April 2016 - pdf 234 KB)
National Reform Programme 2016 Executive Summary
(April 2016 - pdf 190 KB)