SPANISH ECONOMY OVERVIEW
Investors Presentation (December 30, 2016 - pdf 1.2 MB)
1. The Funding Programme in 2016; 2. Transformation of Spain’s growth model; 3. Spanish Economic Policy & Reforms.
Gobierno de España: Macroeconomic Scenario (December 02, 2016 - pdf 21 KB)
Spain macroeconomic scenario 2016-2017. GDP growth forecast: 3.2% for 2016 (2.9% in October) and 2.5% for 2017 (2.3% in October).
Spanish external sector and competitiveness: facts and figures (November 21, 2016 - pdf 560 KB)
In the year to september 2016, exports increased by 1.2% compared to the same period of 2015 to €188.5bn, whereas imports dropped by 1.6% y/y to €201.7bn. In real terms, exports rose by 3.2% y/y and imports grew by 2.7% y/y. Spain’s trade deficit decreased to €13.2bn compared to January-September of 2015 (deficit of €18.6bn). The export/import coverage ratio reached 93.4%, 2.5 pp higher than in the same period of 2015 (90.9%). The attached updated document provides additional key facts and figures of Spain's external sector.
Consumer Price Index (CPI). December 2016 (January 13, 2017)
The y/y change of the CPI index stands at 1.6%, nine tenths more than the registered the previous month. Core CPI increase two tenths to 1.0%. The harmonized consumer price index (HICP) increase nine tenths to 1.4%.
Industrial Production Index (IPI). November 2016 (January 11, 2017)
The m/m change of the Industrial Production Index stood at 1.7% (SA). The y/y change of the IPI stood at 3.2% in SA terms and at -4.6% in the original series.
Markit Services PMI. December 2016 (January 04, 2017)
The headline seasonally adjusted Business Activity Index posted 55.0 in December, thereby signalling a further marked monthly rise in service sector activity. The reading was broadly unchanged from 55.1 in the previous month. Activity has increased continuously since November 2013.
Labour Market: Social Security covered workers. December 2016 (January 04, 2017 - pdf 59 KB)
In the month of December, Social Security system contributors increased by 68,531 persons (0.39%, m/m). In seasonally adjusted terms, Social Security contributors increased by 41,438 persons. Versus a year earlier, the annual increase in recorded affiliation is 540,655 (3.12% y/y).
Labour Market: Registered unemployment. December 2016 (January 04, 2017 - pdf 68 KB)
In the month of December, registered unemployment decreased by 86,849 persons (-2.29%, m/m). In seasonally adjusted terms, registered unemployment decreased by 49,243 persons. Versus a year earlier, the annual fall in registered unemployment is 390,534 (-9.54% y/y).
Markit Manufacturing PMI. December 2016 (January 02, 2017)
The SA PMI index rose to 55.3 in December, up from 54.5 in November and signalling a marked monthly strengthening of the health of the sector. Moreover, the latest improvement was the greatest since January. Business conditions have now strengthened in each of the past 37 months.
Retail Trade Index (RTI). November 2016 (December 28, 2016)
The monthly change of the RTI stands at 0.5% (SA) vs -0.2% m/m the previous month. The y/y change of the index stands at 3.3% (SA) and at 4.0% (original series).
Quarterly Labour Cost Survey (QLCS). Q3-2016 (December 16, 2016)
The labour cost of companies decreases 0.5% in the Q3-2016 vs the same period of 2015. The wage cost per worker per month decreases by 0.3% and other costs decreases 0.9%.
Quarterly National Accounts Q3-16 (November 24, 2016)
In Q3-16, the Spanish economy registered a quarterly growth of 0.7%. This rate is one tenth lower than that recorded in Q2-16. Year-on-year growth stands at 3.2% vs 3.4% registered in the previous quarter.
GDP Q3-16 (flash estimate) (October 28, 2016)
GDP registers variation of 0.7% in the Q3-16. The y/y variation is 3.2%.
Labour market: Economically Active Population Survey (EAPS) Q3-16 (October 27, 2016)
In Q3-16, employment increases by 226,500 persons. In the last 12 months, employment increases by 478,800 persons, the y/y change in employment was +2.65%. The number of unemployed persons decreases by 253,900 in Q3-16. In the last 12 months, unemployment decreases by 530,000 persons, the y/y change in unemployment was -10.93%.
DATA CENTRE / BULLETINS
International Trade Report - November 2016 (January 19, 2017 - pdf 863 KB)
In November exports increased by 8.5% in nominal terms to €23.51bn (+7.4% y/y SA), whereas imports avanced by 5.3% to €24.75bn (+3.9% y/y SA). In real terms, exports increased by 9.3% y/y and imports grew by 7.0% y/y. Spain’s trade balance registered a deficit of €1.25bn, down from a €1.85bn deficit in November 2015 (provisional data).The export/import coverage ratio reached 95.0% (92.1% in November 2015 with provisional data).
- Weekly Economic Bulletin (January 13, 2017 - pdf 1.2 MB)
Spanish Economy Report (November 2016) (December 20, 2016 - pdf 632 KB)
The Spanish Economy: recent developments and prospects,
Banco de España - Statistical Bulletin. November 2016 (December 09, 2016)
It contains the economic statistics compiled by the BoE (on the credit system, other financial institutions, financial markets, general government and the balance of payments), a summary of general economic statistics, compiled by the INE and other public bodies, and a set of indicators for other countries.
IMF: World Economic Outlook Update - January 2017 (January 16, 2017)
The IMF GDP growth forecast for Spain: 2.3% for 2017 (2.2% in October) and 2.1% for 2018 (1.9% in October).
Banco de España: Macroeconomic projections (December 2016) (December 14, 2016)
Throughout the projection period, the expansionary phase of the economy is expected to continue, underpinned – inter alia – by the maintenance of the monetary stimulus and by the headway made in the ongoing deleveraging of private agents and the pick-up in external competitiveness. Specifically, GPD growth is projected to stand at 3.2% this year (3.2% in September), 2.5% in 2017 (up from 2.3%), 2.1% in 2018 (2.1%) and 2.0% in 2019.
OECD: Economic Outlook November 2016 Spain (November 28, 2016)
The OECD improves its GDP growth forecast for Spain to 3.2% for 2016 (up from 2.8% in June). Forecats 2.3% for 2017 (2.3% in June) and 2.2% for 2018. The Spanish economy has grown strongly in 2016, led by domestic demand spurred by easy monetary policy in the euro area and a fiscal stimulus. The expansionary phase is expected to continue in 2017 and 2018, with domestic demand leading the recovery, albeit at a slower pace as some factors that have contributed to boost consumption, such as low oil prices and lower taxes, will recede. Inflation will gradually pick up as the effects of low oil prices diminish, but pressures will remain moderate due to still high unemployment.
European Commission: European economic forecast - Autumn 2016 Spain (November 09, 2016)
Economic growth has again exceeded expectations in recent quarters. It is still expected to ease but remain robust throughout the forecast horizon. Although domestic demand is expected to remain the main driver of growth, the contribution of the external sector is set to turn positive. Inflation is expected to pick up in 2017 as oil prices increase and core inflation recovers. Unemployment is set to continue to fall steadily to 16½% by 2018. The reduction of the general government deficit in 2017 and 2018 relies to a large extent on the positive macroeconomic outlook. Accordingly, Spain’s economy is forecast to grow by 3.2% (2.6% in may) in 2016, 2.3% (2.5% in May) in 2017 and 2.1% in 2018.
(December 2016 - pdf 1.2 MB)
Stability Programme 2016-2019 (Summary presentation) ES
(April 2016 - pdf 234 KB)
National Reform Programme 2016 Executive Summary
(April 2016 - pdf 190 KB)